Kalshi Prices vs. Outcome Patterns Project

This project explores whether patterns in sports prediction market prices can be used to predict game outcomes more accurately than the market prices themselves suggest. We will begin by collecting historical prediction market data for football games and analyzing how prices change before and during games, with the possibility of expanding to other sports.

Our goal is to investigate two main questions: Can patterns in prediction market prices improve our ability to predict which team will win? And, more importantly, can those patterns be turned into a trading strategy that is profitable on average? Members will work with real market data, develop and test predictive models and trading strategies, and evaluate their performance against the market as a baseline.